Criminal Organizations and Nuclear Threats in Southeast Asia

Gary Ackerman, University at Albany, State University of New YorkFollow
Thomas Guarrieri, University of Maryland, College ParkFollow
Justin V. Hastings, University of SydneyFollow
Steven Hoodjer, United States Department of DefenseFollow

Abstract

Increasing global interest in nuclear energy and peaceful uses of nuclear technology has led to facilities in emerging countries with nuclear materials and radioactive sources that could be stolen, sabotaged, or otherwise accessed by criminals. In this paper, we created a framework to assess the motivations and capabilities of criminal networks and measure the threats they may pose to different stages of the nuclear fuel cycle in emerging nuclear states. We applied the framework to a unique dataset, capturing characteristics of criminal organizations active in Southeast Asia, which allowed us to assess which criminal organizations are most likely to pose a threat to nuclear security in the region. We found that local Southeast Asian criminal groups are relatively immature in the threats they may pose to nuclear security, but criminal groups with bases outside the region may be more likely to possess the motivations and capabilities associated with nuclear security risk. This finding has implications for nuclear security policy.

Recommended Citation

Ackerman, Gary; Guarrieri, Thomas; Hastings, Justin V.; and Hoodjer, Steven (2025) "Criminal Organizations and Nuclear Threats in Southeast Asia," International Journal of Nuclear Security: Vol. 9: No. 1, Article 14.

Available at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/ijns/vol9/iss1/14