Masters Theses

Date of Award

5-2000

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Major

Civil Engineering

Major Professor

Karen C. Chou

Committee Members

J. Harold Deatherage, Edwin G. Burdette, David W. Goodpasture

Abstract

The Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT) is currently using production rates that were developed from past experience and some historical data to estimate contract duration. These production rates tend to underestimate the time duration of a project. Research by the University of Tennessee, Knoxville has developed predictive production rates based on on-site construction operations observed in 1997-1998. The P95 values were developed on the basis that the contractor would complete an operation 95% of the time. Without making any comparisons to past performance, the development of the P95 values was based limited observations. Historical data were collected, analyzed, and used to make comparisons to the predictive production rates. This thesis concentrates on the comparisons of historical data. Historical production rates were determined based on information retrieved from inspector’s diaries, asphalt plant books, field books, and final record books. Comparisons between the historical production rates and the predictive production rates could then be made to determine if the P95 values were applicable The P95 values were then used to estimate the time duration of the twenty-two operations studied and compared to the number of days reported for completion of the operations. There appears to be a large discrepancy in production rate between the historical records and the P95 model. One major reason is the interpretation of days reported. Without sufficient information from the historical records, the days reported were conservatively defined as full days of operation. This interpretation can easily lead to lower than actual production rates.

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