Masters Theses

Date of Award

5-2006

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Arts

Major

Political Science

Major Professor

Jana Morgan Kelly

Committee Members

Michael Fitzgerald, David Houston

Abstract

Over the years, scholars have continually debated the effect that foreign assistance has had on recipient countries. This study aims to continue research in that area by exploring the effectiveness of U.S. foreign assistance to Colombia. Specifically, my research is designed to investigate the effect of U.S. foreign assistance in three broad areas of Colombian society: law enforcement, guerrilla violence, and drug production.

Using available data that covers the years 1980-2002, I perform a multivariate time-series analysis to assess the impact of U.S. foreign assistance on six key dependent variables; these variables have been selected to illuminate the three broad areas mentioned above. The dependent variables—and the broader categories with which they are associated—are as follows: first, in order to measure the impact of U.S. foreign assistance on drug related law enforcement in Colombia, I analyze a change in the number of drug labs destroyed, the amount of cocaine and base seized (kilos), and the amount of coca sprayed (ha) by aerial fumigation; next, I measure the effect of U.S. foreign assistance on guerrilla violence by regressing foreign assistance on the number of persons kidnapped (per thousand inhabitants) and number of homicides (per thousand inhabitants); finally, in order to measure the effect of U.S. foreign assistance on the overall drug production in Colombia, I regress the amount of foreign assistance on the total amount of estimated cultivation of coca (ha) in Colombia.

In the areas of law enforcement, guerrilla violence, and drug production, findings in this study indicate there is no positive correlation between the amount of foreign assistance given to Colombia from 1980-2002, and any of the aforementioned dependent variables.

However, results indicate that the Colombian president’s party affiliation, Colombia’s GDP per capita, and Colombia’s ‘level of democracy’ (as measured by Polity IV scores) may have a noteworthy relationship to the overall ffectiveness of Colombia’s law enforcement. Further, when assessing attempts to curb guerrilla violence—in the form of kidnappings and homicides—Colombia’s presidential party affiliation and its GDP per capita may also be a determinant of change in violence. Finally, when testing for a change in levels of Colombia’s drug production, Colombia’s level of democracy, its rural population density, and its unemployment rate indicate statistically significant relationships.

Given these findings, my research suggests that past U.S. foreign assistance given to Colombia, has no significant relationship to assisting Colombia in the successful attainment of any of the following goals: increasing law enforcement, decreasing guerrilla violence, or decreasing drug production. Other variables, though, may play a role in the attainment of these goals. As such, the effectiveness of foreign assistance should continue to be carefully analyzed in order to reevaluate its overall objectives and the methods chosen to pursue those objectives—as the United States continues assistance to Colombia. This study suggests that future foreign assistance to Colombia should focus on promoting good policies, strong institutions, and eliminating opportunities for corruption. Furthermore, aid should focus on dual positive effects of improving the lives of the Colombian people and mitigating the impact of the drug trade.

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