Estimating parameters in Kalecki's business cycle model

Author

John Gordon Trawick

Date of Award

8-1992

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Major

Mathematics

Major Professor

Ben G. Fitzpatrick

Committee Members

Steve Serbin, Yueh-er Kuo

Abstract

The goal of this research is to estimate the parameters in Michal Kalecki's original business cycle model. Initially, there is an explanation of how Kalecki's theory relates to the construction of the delay-differential equation model. Next, a general solution suggested from Kalecki's analysis is presented. Finally, to find the optimal parameters of the model with respect to actual industry data, a nonlinear least-squares method is used. The data for comparison is an industry's capital stock. Although we find that some of the model's parameters can not be uniquely determined, it is possible to obtain an optimal Kalecki estimate of the industry's business cycle. We are able to conclude that the effectiveness of Kalecki's estimate is dependent on the consistency of the industry data. Lastly, to make the model more effective, we suggest a more complete analysis for the solution of the delay-differential equation.

Recommended Citation

Trawick, John Gordon, "Estimating parameters in Kalecki's business cycle model. " Master's Thesis, University of Tennessee, 1992.
https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_gradthes/12298