Doctoral Dissertations

Date of Award

8-1984

Degree Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy

Major

Economics

Major Professor

Henry W. Herzog, Alan M. Schlottmann

Committee Members

H. E. Jensen, F. Y. Lee, Thomas P. Boehm

Abstract

The flow of trained manpower from various countries has been a concern of many nations during the past two decades. The purpose of this study is to formulate and statistically test models pertaining to (1) international migration of trained manpower to the U.S., (2) their state of initial location, and (c) their remigration decision within the U.S.

The major change in the U.S. Immigration Law (1965) not only has increased the share of professionals in the immigration stream, but also has shifted the source of immigration from its traditional source. Western Europe, to developing countries. The effect of the "new" Immigration Law is also statistically tested. The determinants of the international flow of trained manpower to the U.S., for the period between 1968 and 1974, are examined in terms of international trade theory, as a response of human capital movements to differences in marginal productivity and factor prices. The empirical analysis is conducted separately for total professionals, social scientists, natural scientists, engineers, and physicians and surgeons. Using cross-sectional time-series data, separate equations are estimated for "industrial" and "developing" countries and for each occupational group. Ordinary least squares is employed to estimate the regression of the propensities to immigrate. The explanatory variables are stocks of trained manpower in the origin country, foreign students in the U.S., costs of travel, the U.S. share of the origin Country's international trade, income differential, and a variable representing the effect of the 1965 U.S. Immigration Law. Regression results show significant variation among the determinants of immigration from industrial and developing countries, and among various occupations. Most of the hypotheses are confirmed. Study in the U.S. and travel costs are shown to be important for both industrial and developing countries, and for almost every occupation group. The relationship between stocks of trained manpower in the origin country and immigration is strongly supported for developing countries. The U.S. share of the origin Country's international trade is shown to be important to immigration of technical personnel from both country groups. The income differential is not an important determinant of immigration, while employment opportunities in the U.S. influence immigration decisions from industrial countries. In addition, the implementation of the "new" immigration law in 1968 has caused a downward shift in immigration propensities from industrial countries, but has no effect on those from developing countries.

Using 1980 Census microdata, the determinants of the initial state of residency in 1975 and subsequent 1975-1980 interstate remigration of foreign-born trained manpower are analyzed (for those who immigrate to U.S. between 1970 and 1974). The method of Ordinary Least Squares is used for the initial location model. Subsequent interstate remigration is empirically tested by Maximum Likelihood Procedures in a binary logit model. The findings are: (1) a small number of states attracts the "new" immigrants from every ethnic group, (2) there are important behavioral differences between ethnic groups, (3) only Europeans respond to income incentives and temperature in choosing their initial location, while Americans and Asians respond to employment and professional opportunities, (4) the "new" immigrants are strongly motivated by the location of colleagues and fellow countryman, but they become less concentrated and more dispersed as they acquire experience, (5) the likelihood of interstate remigration is not affected by either income or the unemployment rate in the origin state, but the likelihood is significantly reduced by professional opportunities and "mild" temperatueres, (6) the "age and education selectivity" of interstate remigration are supported, and personal unemployment is shown to significantly increase the likelihood of remigration, (7) Asians and "others" are more mobile in their subsequent interstate migration than Americans and Europeans, (8) and, when compared with studies of labor force mobility in the U.S., the rate of interstate remigration of foreign-born professionals is at least twice that of the native-born labor force.

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