Doctoral Dissertations

Date of Award

5-1992

Degree Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy

Major

Education

Major Professor

C. Glennon Rowell

Committee Members

Jerry Bellon, Mary Jane Connelly, Lynn Ourth, Robert Roney

Abstract

Multiple linear regression models were produced to predict the collegiate academic success of graduates of Tennessee public high schools from 1986 through 1989. Data from the University of Tennessee student records system were merged with data supplied by the Tennessee State Department of Education to develop the statistically based equations. The research data set contained records of 10,327 graduates of Tennessee public high schools. These students subsequently entered the University of Tennessee located in Knoxville in the fall or summer immediately following graduation. Stepwise regression models were specified for the respective response variables; freshman cumulative CPA and fourth semester sophomore cumulative GPA. The independent variables considered were ACT composite scores, high school GPA, whether or not the student's high school was accredited by the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools (SACS), the percentage of students on free or reduced lunches in the school system, school system adjusted expenditure per pupil, school system enrollment, school system twelfth grade graduation rates, and whether or not the student received financial aid while in college. The stepwise regression technique used in the model for predicting first semester cumulative GPA eliminated many of the candidate variables leaving high school GPA, ACT composite scores, the percentage of students on free or reduced lunches for the school system, school system adjusted expenditure per pupil, and whether or not the high school was accredited by SACS. The five variables accounted for about 29% of the variance in freshman cumulative GPA. The regression equation constructed for the last semester of the sophomore year included all of the independent variables stated for the earlier model plus an indicator for whether or not the student received collegiate financial aid and the enrollment size of the students’ public school system. The six independent variables accounted for over 37% of the variation in the fourth semester sophomore year cumulative GPA. It was found that for the given data set, high school GPA and ACT composite scores provided a more accurate prediction equation than could be accomplished with a single variable. However, the predictability contribution of the high school GPA was far superior to the ACT composite scores or to any other combination of variables.

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