Flash Floods Climatology and Emergency Management Considerations in the County Warning Area of the Morristown, TN, Weather Forecasting Office

Flash floods typically occur from heavy rainfall events that cause a rapid inundation of land, usually in under 6 hours. The Southeastern United States has unique geographic features that make this region more susceptible to heavy rainfall events and flash floods. In this region, there has also been an increase in temperature which subsequently can lead to higher precipitation rates and sea-level rise. Forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) encounter difficulties in predicting flash flood events because of such variability in factors contributing to the occurrence of flash floods. Forecasters work closely with EMs in their County Warning Area (CWA) to facilitate a “weather-ready nation” by providing accurate and timely information regarding the possibility of a flash flooding event. The goal of this study was to understand the flash flood climatology of the Morristown (MRX) CWA using NOAA flash flood data to understand seasonal peaks in flash floods and assessing EMs’ perception of flash flood risk to provide information on preparedness and mitigation. EMs contend with misinformation and lack of awareness among their residents which can lead to failure to follow proper orders regarding weather and hazard safety. Communication between acting EMs, NWS partners, and the county residents is a top priority when assessing preparedness in the event of a flash flood.

Senior Honors Thesis