Food Security in the United States: A Futures Analysis via Systems Modeling

Food insecurity is a pressing issue not only in developing countries, but in communities across the United States (US). Food insecurity is the lack of nutritious, sufficient, accessible, and reliable culturally-appropriate food. At least 42.2 million people across the US face food insecurity. Food insecurity has been associated with institutional barriers, gender, indigeneity, citizenship, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, racialization, and poverty. Further, a lack of sufficient, nutritious food is associated with serious health outcomes. Food insecure populations have higher rates of chronic disease, mental health issues, and obesity. Considering the negative health outcomes associated with food insecurity, and its relationship with environmental, economic, political, and sociological trends, a review of the current literature was conducted, and a novel systems model was created using the Tonn methodology. This systems model defines and organizes relationships between key indicators identified via a comprehensive literature review. Data were collected from over 100 sources, scored, and analyzed from using environmental scanning and futures analysis.Results suggested that climate change, food production infrastructure, and ecosystem health will display negative trends over time. In other words, the model predicts more intense climate change, declining food production infrastructure and ecosystem health. Trends in political climate and social inequity conditions were positive, although social inequity expected component changes remained negative. Therefore, while the model predicts decreased social inequity and improved political climate, these values were still negative in relation to food security. Sensitivity analyses revealed no unexpected effects with the removal of climate change and political climate components. Therefore, model effects were not driven solely by the trends in political climate and climate change, rather the model as a whole. Overall, policy-makers, nutrition, and public health professionals must begin to address food insecurity in light of future trends revealed through this and similar studies. Preparation and pro-active intervention could reduce the risk of negative health outcomes associated with food insecurity around the world in the next 20 years. Future studies must examine the most effective interventions and policies targeted at vulnerable populations considering the complex relationship between environmental, economic, political, and sociological driving factors.