The Food Desert Reduction Roadmap: A Food-Energy-Water Nexus Analysis for the Appalachian Region

The United States Department of Agriculture has defined a food desert as a census tract that lacks access to fresh, nutritious, and affordable food. While food deserts define a geographic or financial barrier to a food source for a community, food insecurity indicates the uncertain availability of food within the home. These communities often see other socioeconomic factors influencing their status as a food desert and rates of food insecurity. The Food-Energy-Water nexus is used as it incorporates these factors to address the root causes of food deserts, allowing in-depth analysis of these communities and their needs.

As climate change worsens, significant shifts in temperature and precipitation are disrupting agriculture and, subsequently, the food supply chains. Appalachian communities often depend on local farmers to substitute for grocery stores or provide affordable food. Rural food desert communities in Appalachia are disproportionately impacted, with nearly 75% of total farmland in the region being small-scale and family-owned. Between 2017 and 2022, the region lost 2.45 million acres of family-owned farmland, which calculates to 46.6 acres lost per hour.

In 2020, the food insecurity rates in Appalachia ranged from 6.2% to 25.9% throughout the region, with higher rates seen in the Southern and South Central subregions. Between 2010 and 2022, food insecurity rates have remained stagnant throughout the region, with an average rate of 15.0%, with the greatest impact on food insecurity being the median household income. Through the decade, the number of census tracts identified as both geographic and financial food deserts have risen by 53, climbing from 886 to 939. The relationship analysis between food insecurity and food deserts yielded that if a household was food insecure, they were 1.50 times more likely to also be in a geographic and financial food desert. This study used the trends of food deserts, the loss of farmland, and socioeconomic data to predict the next 5 years of the region. Based on the predictions and the relationship between deserts and insecurity, the number of food deserts is expected to continue to increase between 2023 and 2027 from 13.9% to 15.5%.