Analyzing Appropriate Policy Factors to Stimulate Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Population Growth in California to Achieve the State’s Overall Climate and Environmental Goals

The objective of this dissertation research is to assess critical policy factors that will need to be adjusted to stimulate significant increases in the adoption of Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEV) in California to support the state's aggressive climate and environmental goals. Currently, California in comparison to the other 49 states has the United States' worst Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) coming from its transportation sector. Also, within the state, transportation is ahead of all other economic sectors, including agriculture, electricity generation, and even industrial pollution in creating poor air quality. California in recent years has set aggressive targets to both decreases GHG’s and increase ZEV adoption to combat the climate challenges. Some targets include attaining a ZEV population of at least 5 million by 2030, all light-duty vehicles sold in the state to be 100% ZEV by 2035, and reducing GHG emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. Achieving these aggressive goals through the transportation sector will require shifts in key policies area including multimodal transportation, supportive land-use policies, and even transportation technology. However, the ZEV-related policies adjustments can also be more immediately impactful to the state. Policies and incentives related to offsetting the cost of ZEVs, policies, increasing charging infrastructure, and the cost of fuel are 3 of the most impactful areas that will spur additional sales in the coming years to help California meet its goals. This research provides models to forecast ZEV growth based on the current trends and develops new models based on 3 policies areas adjustments that will help California reach its intended outcomes.