IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MAMMALIAN SPECIES OF CONCERN WITHIN THE APPALACHIAN ECOREGION

Climate change and growth anthropogenic presence is a phenomenon impacting all species globally. Fortunately, with protection of key areas of suitable habitat and climate, we can alleviate the worst of biodiversity loss utilizing climate change refugia. This is apparent in the eastern United States, where the Appalachian Ecoregion naturally form a refugium compared to the surrounding landscape for many taxa and rare ecosystems. Particularly of interest are the at-risk relict boreal ecosystems found at elevation, which are otherwise restricted to the northern US and Canada, and numerous endemic taxa found only in this biodiverse region.

Recent studies have focused either on the distant future (2080s or beyond), continental scale models, and/or a wide array of taxonomic groups to produce studies of broad ecological trends. Focus has also been given primarily to birds, amphibians, and plants, with a large gap in studies of mammals at a regional scale focused on climate change. To address this gap, I assessed the effects of climate change on species distributions, dispersal, and even relocation, for Appalachian mammals, giving focus to protected areas and landcover to highlight key refugial areas for these mammals focusing first on a wide array of species of greatest conservation need, then narrowing the scope to focus on the overlap of a single large family with a single charismatic flagship species, and finally to the reintroduced subspecies of a single taxon within the region.

Results highlighted the versatility of methods used based on species ecology and the importance of post-model processing across numerous scenarios. I provided (1) recommendations to practitioners on key conservation areas for mammalian refugia as well as areas for partnership programs in the Appalachian Ecoregion, (2) proposed areas for modification of impermeable barriers in biodiverse areas to allow better connectivity of refugia for species with varying dispersal abilities, and (3) provided recommendations to state agencies based on ecological and genetic literature and our subspecies models of suitable climate to increase reestablishment success in suitable areas for the wapiti.