Masters Theses

Date of Award

8-2013

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Arts

Major

Political Science

Major Professor

Brandon C. Prins

Committee Members

Ian Down, Wonjae Hwang

Abstract

International Relations has long sought to identify the causes of conflict. Two popular theories that suggest leaders use conflict for domestic purposes – that of diversion and policy availability – rest on the assumption that conflict does in fact lead to domestic political benefits. Chief among these benefits is the boost in public approval ratings, known as the “rally-‘round-the-flag.” Large-N statistical studies testing the rally effect are few and seldom look beyond the United States. Further, there are no studies that examine the varying rally effects of joining ongoing conflicts versus conflict initiation or participation. The postulated theory suggests conflict joining has a greater rally effect than conflict initiation due to monetary and reputational cost/benefit tradeoffs. Bivariate and multivariate results do not support the theory, indicating joining a conflict does not have a positive impact on approval ratings and, in fact, has a worse effect than conflict initiation.

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