Date of Award

12-2004

Degree Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy

Major

Management Science

Major Professor

Hamparsum Bozdogan

Committee Members

Kenneth Gilbert, Hamila Bensmail, Chanaka Edirisinghe

Abstract

This dissertation develops new computationally e±cient algorithms for identifying the subset of variables that minimizes any desired information criteria in model selection.

In recent years, the statistical literature has placed more and more empha- sis on information theoretic model selection criteria. A model selection crite- rion chooses model that \closely" approximates the true underlying model. Recent years have also seen many exciting developments in the model se- lection techniques. As demand increases for data mining of massive data sets with many variables, the demand for model selection techniques are be- coming much stronger and needed. To this end, we introduce a new Implicit Enumeration (IE) algorithm and a hybridized IE with the Genetic Algorithm (GA) in this dissertation.

The proposed Implicit Enumeration algorithm is the ¯rst algorithm that explicitly uses an information criterion as the objective function. The algo- rithm works with a variety of information criteria including some for which the existing branch and bound algorithms developed by Furnival and Wil- son (1974) and Gatu and Kontoghiorghies (2003) are not applicable. It also ¯nds the \best" subset model directly without the need of ¯nding the \best" subset of each size as the branch and bound techniques do.

The proposed methods are demonstrated in multiple, multivariate, logis- tic regression and discriminant analysis problems. The implicit enumeration algorithm converged to the optimal solution on real and simulated data sets v with up to 80 predictors, thus having 280 = 1; 208; 925; 819; 614; 630; 000; 000; 000 possible subset models in the model portfolio. To our knowledge, none of the existing exact algorithms have the capability of optimally solving such problems of this size.

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