Methodology for Uncertainty Analysis of Advanced Fuel Cycles and Preliminary Results

This report assesses the sensitivity and uncertainty associated with certain advanced nuclear fuel cycles due to the variance of chosen parameters and how these results relate to the deep geological nuclear waste repository. High burn up uranium oxide, mixed oxide, and fast spectrum nuclear fuels are the advanced fuel cycles considered. The parameters that are varied in these cases are: the time of advanced fuel implementation, energy growth rate, fuel burn up, and reprocessing introduction and capacity. The results analyzed are the amount of spent fuel and the amount of Pu in spent fuel in the year 2099. The advanced fuel cycle scenarios are modeled using the DANESS code developed by Argonne National Laboratory. All the fuel cycles modeled in this report are highly sensitive to the above-mentioned varied parameters. In a 0% energy growth rate case the plutonium fast burner reactor significantly reduces the amount of waste destined to the repository. Compared to current once-through fuel cycle practices, the fast reactor reduces waste by 50-52 percent. As energy demand grows, the high burn up case of 100 (GWd per ton heavy metal) fuel, as modeled in this thesis, reduces the mass destined for the repository greatest. In the 1.5% energy growth rate, spent fuel mass is reduced 32-44 percent, and in the 3.0% energy growth rate those numbers are 43-49 percent.