Driving Enrollment Amidst Change: Exploring College Choice of Out-of-State Students

Public universities are facing growing pressure to attract and enroll students from outside their state due to shifting population patterns, increased tuition expenses, and heightened competition among institutions. This study examined the factors behind college choice among first-year out-of-state students at a public four-year institution and analyzed trends between 2020 and 2023. This research utilized the Admitted Student and Parent Interest (ASPI) survey data to identify those key college choice variables that are important during enrollment decisions and assessed how these have changed over time.

This study applied Hossler and Gallagher’s (1987) three-stage model of college choice, along with Jackson’s (1986) framework of preference, exclusion, and evaluation and evaluated the likelihood of enrollment based on variables such as institutional reputation, student demographics, financial considerations, and campus environment. Logistic regression models showed that academic reputation and program strength were key in the initial college search, but factors like campus surroundings, residence halls, athletic reputation and student life had a greater impact on final enrollment decisions. The financial burden represented by net cost was a barrier to enrollment decisions and indicated how financial aid and perceived value influenced students’ ultimate decisions.

The findings underscored that universities must create recruitment plans that emphasize the full campus experience for out-of-state students, through marketing efforts around residential life, extracurricular engagement, and financial aid transparency. By tailoring communication to demonstrate institutional fit and leveraging data-driven outreach techniques, institutions can improve yield rates and attract students from diverse regions.