Evaluating the Long-Term Impact of Sustainability Guides: A Case Study of the Seafood Watch Guide

Anthropogenic disturbances are driving biodiversity loss globally, impacting the productivity and stability of ecosystems. The loss of species and the resulting environmental crisis have prompted efforts to influence consumer decisions towards more sustainable choices. Various ecolabeling tools, including guides, ratings, and certifications, have been employed to facilitate behavior change. However, limited research has examined the long-term effects of these guides on species populations. This study focuses on the Seafood Watch Guide, one of the longest-running sustainability guides, first published in 1999 by the Monterey Bay Aquarium. The guide uses a stoplight system with red, yellow, and green categories to assess the sustainability of seafood and make recommendations to consumers on what to buy. To investigate the impact of changing recommendations on fisheries, we collected and analyzed data on Seafood Watch Guide recommendations spanning from 1999 to 2023. Data on catch and abundance for wild-caught fisheries in the United States were also obtained from the NOAA Stock SMART database. This study aims to contribute to an understanding of the long-term impact of sustainability guides through a detailed study of the Seafood Watch Guide. By examining the relationship between recommendation changes and fishery metrics over a substantial period, we seek to evaluate the efficacy of the guide in influencing consumer behavior and, ultimately, its contribution to conserving species. Our results reveal a troubling outcome – we found no evidence that the Seafood Watch Guide has positively influenced catch and abundance metrics. Several potential factors could contribute to these findings, including the complexity of the guide's rating system, challenges in matching seafood options to recommendations, cost barriers, and the availability (or lack thereof) of green-listed seafood. These findings underscore the critical need for reevaluating sustainability guides like the Seafood Watch Guide to better align consumer choices with sustainability and the conservation of species.