Orange bearing acreage and Brazilian orange juice trade : the impact on the California-Arizona and Florida citrus regions

One of the most critical decisions that a citrus producer must make is the scheduling of new plantings and replacement of old trees. In other words he must decide on bearing acreage changes. Two supply response models for bearing acreage difference were developed for Florida and the western (California-Arizona) citrus industries. The models for bearing acreage are based on French and Matthews work on acreage adjustments in perennial crops. The purpose of these regional citrus models is to examine both domestic and international factors affecting orange acreage in the major citrus growing regions in the U.S.A. Most of the data employed in this study were compiled at the University of Florida and University of Tennessee libraries and from personal communication with Dr. Robert Behr, Director of the Economic Research Department at the Department of Citrus. Ms. Emily Mc Clain, candidate for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Florida, provided additional information. The study concluded that Florida bearing acreage differences (FLBAD) is a function of Brazilian orange production lagged one year (BORPDTl), Florida orange on-tree prices lagged two years (FLTPRT2), Freezes (FREZ), Average Brazilian frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) export prices to the U.S. lagged years one and two (BXPUSV). The study found the California-Arizona bearing acreage difference (CZBAD) model to be a function of California Arizona nonbearing acreage lagged four and five years (CAZNBT4 and CAZNBTS), California on-tree prices lagged two years (CATPRT2), California-Arizona yield lagged five years (CZYIDTS). Both econometric models were assumed to provide the best explanation for bearing acreage changes in Florida and the western citrus industry. This assumption is based on the relatively good job the models did explaining the basis for bearing acreage difference (R 2= .8614) and (R 2= .8784) for Florida and California-Arizona models respectively.