Measuring personal reliability via conditional reasoning : identifying people who will work reliably

Current research suggests that measures of an individual’s dispositions may offer relevant insights into current and future behavior (House, Shane, & Herold, 1996). However, the potential for respondents biasing the results of self-report dispositional measures exists. This becomes particularly pertinent when selecting individuals for duty in high reliance work environments, like nuclear weapons production, which demand the highest standards of personal reliability. Recently, James (1998) outlined a new measurement methodology for indirectly assessing cognitive dispositions referred to as Conditional Reasoning.” In the present study, a concurrent validation of a 20 item Conditional Reasoning measure of cognitive dispositions to behave (un)reliably was performed. One hundred nuclear weapons plant operators acted as research participants. Additionally, age, education, and years of service were gathered as control variables along with two and a half years of attendance data serving as a criterion. Results provide encouraging evidence for the validity of Conditional Reasoning as a predictor of (un)reliability as manifested in habitual absenteeism (r = -.38). Implications for future research and application in industry are discussed.