A Test of the Classical Model for Predicting Endurance Running Performance

Purpose: The purpose of this investigation was to compare the "classic" physiological predictors of endurance performance (V̇O_2max,%V̇O_2max at LT, and RE) with a treadmill performance test (PTV) to see which best predicts performance in a simulated 16 km time trial. A secondary purpose was to identify physiological factors related to PTV. Methods: Seventeen healthy, well-trained distance runners (10 males, 7 females) underwent laboratory testing to determine maximal oxygen uptake (V̇O_2max), running economy (RE), percentage of maximal oxygen uptake at the lactate threshold (%V̇O_2max at LT); running velocity at the lactate threshold (LT) and peak treadmill running velocity (PTV) for predicting performance in a 16 km time trial. Results: Regression analysis revealed that V̇O_2max, PTV, and RE were highly correlated with the distance running performance and together explained 92.5% of the variation in run time. Stepwise analysis showed that 92% of the total variance in 16 km run time was accounted for by V̇O_2max and RE. When the calculated variable velocity at V̇O_2max (vV̇O_2max) was added to the model the R² increased to 0.954 and Stepwise analysis identified vV̇O_2max as the best single predictor accounting for 94.4% of the total variance in 16 km run time. Conclusion: Among well-trained subjects heterogeneous in V̇O_2max and running performance, velocity at V̇O_2max is the best predictor of running performance because it integrates both maximal aerobic power and the economy of running, while %V̇O_2max at LT contributes little to the prediction model.

Key Words: endurance performance, distance running, oxygen uptake, running economy, lactate threshold, peak treadmill velocity