A Disaggregated Analysis of Beef Import Demand in Japan

Japan is an important partner for the U.S. beef industry and a major beef importing country. In 2020, Japan was the world’s third-largest importer of beef products (USDA, 2021). Although the Japanese beef market has been studied, research on the importance of product characteristics in determining import demand has been limited. The goal of this research is to provide a detailed analysis of how U.S. beef products compete in the Japanese market relative to other exporting countries based on prices, product form (chilled versus frozen), and product characteristics (boneless versus bone-in).

This study will focus on three key factors affecting beef import demand in the Japanese market. The first factor is the importance of country of origin, the second is the importance of product form in determining demand, and the third is whether the imported product is boneless versus bone-in. These three factors will be examined all together using the generalized dynamic Rotterdam model developed by Bushehri (2003). STATA will be used to estimate the model. Estimates are used to examine the effects of recent trade agreements and tariff policy at the detailed product level and to project U.S. exports to Japan moving forward.