Energy and economic development strategies system studies for LDC's

At present approximately 30% of the world's population is within the industrialized nations, and approximately 70% within the less developed countries (LDCs), although there obviously is considerable diversity within each of these two generalized groups.

The present average per capita income within the LDc group is roughly one-tenth that within the industrialized nation group. If there is a collective desire to close that very large economic gap, this would mean accelerated economic development within the LDCs. Consequently this would have an impact upon energy demand and supply questions in the LDCs, as well as the world at large.

This dissertation addresses the above problem in two general ways. The first involves the development of a long range energy demand model through the year 20l0 for the LDCs, based upon aggregate analysis of population dynamics, labor force, labor productivity, and the efficiency of energy utilization for economic deveiopment. The second part of the dissertation focuses upon the potential of biomass, and biomass derived fuels and chemicals, to become a significant domestic renewable energy resource in the context of LDC economic development.

The rate of economic growth which may be accomplished in the LDCs, as well as their future energy consumption patterns, also will have related impacts upon the industrialized nations and the world's energy problem as a whole.

Three LDCs, Brazil, Mauritius, and Nicaragua, have been chosen for study, in part because of their diversity. The U. S. and West Germany have been used as comparative examples from the industrialized nation group. The biomass work focuses upon sugar cane as the source, with lesser emphasis upon corn. The end products examined are ethyl alcohol, ammonia, and electricity, with secondary emphasis upon methyl alcohol and ethylene.