Predictive Modeling in Western Louisiana: Prehistoric and Historic Settlement in the Kisatchie National Forest

This thesis is an effort to provide the US Forest Service with a tool to effectively and efficiently protect and manage the cultural resource heritage of the Kisatchie National Forest. The development and subsequent evaluation of modeling efforts are vital to the archaeology of the region. There are two goals of this modeling project: to evaluate the active US Forest Service Predictive Model and secondly, if warranted, which it was, to improve upon previous models in the region. To do so 23 environmental variables were analyzed, many of which are inter-related, to develop a new set of probability zones while considering temporal and geographic variability in the Forest.

The variables of distance to frequently flooded soils and distance to permanent streams proved the most significant and each play a prominent role in the creation of the proposed 2011 Kisatchie National Forest Model. The proposed model constructed within exhibits ideal gain values for each probability zone while accounting for the geographic and temporal variability present within the Kisatchie National Forest. The recommendation of this thesis is for the implementation of the proposed 2011 Kisatchie National Forest model in favor of both the 1995 Fort Polk Predictive Model and the 2010 Fort Polk Predictive Model for the Kisatchie National Forest and its surrounding region.