Three Essays in Population Economics

This dissertation explores the economic drivers and consequences of population dynamics through three distinct analyses. Chapter One examines the effects of trade-shock-induced migration and return migration on local crime rates and labor market outcomes. Utilizing the 1990s Brazilian trade reform as an exogenous shock, we analyze Brazilian census data to investigate how migrants from regions affected by trade shocks influence labor markets, particularly when they lack social networks, family support, or prior knowledge of the local economy. Chapter Two assesses the impact of increased access to education on teenage fertility. We leverage the 2012 Mexican education reform, which made high school education mandatory and led to a significant expansion of access in regions with previous high school capacity constraints, we explore how this exogenous increase in educational opportunities affects teenage fertility rates. Chapter Three investigates the differential effects of job destruction and establishment closures on teenage and adult fertility. Using county-level U.S. data on job losses due to establishment closures, we examine fertility rates by age group to understand the relationship between labor market disruptions and fertility. Additionally, we analyze individual-level data on income and employment duration to delve into the mechanisms potentially driving teenage fertility in areas affected by job destruction. This work contributes to our understanding of how economic changes influence demographic behaviors, offering insights into the interplay between migration, education, labor markets, and fertility.