Evaluating a Stochastic Optimized Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply Chain from Winter Canola and Its Carbon Intensity

With the increasing concern over carbon emissions from the aviation sector, which accounts for about 2.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, adopting sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) emerges as a vital approach to mitigate GHG emissions. Winter canola, known for its high oil yield and compatibility with existing agricultural systems, presents an appealing feedstock option for SAF production using a hydro-processed ester and fatty acid (HEFA) pathway. The research assesses the economics and carbon intensity (CI) of a potential supply chain for winter canola-based SAF in the Southeastern United States. As winter canola is a relatively new secondary crop in the study area, we incorporate its yield variations in a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model when optimizing the supply chain. Results suggest the potential annual SAF production for Nashville International Airport (BNA), from an existing oil extraction mill (OEM) and 0.46 million acres of winter canola cultivation, range from 34 million gallons to 65 million gallons with a 90% likelihood. With additional investment in facilities and expanded winter canola cultivation to 1.52 million acres, the expected SAF supply to BNA could increase to 91 million gallons. A further 56 million gallons could be expected to supply Memphis International Airport (MEM). The total SAF production for the two airports fluctuates between 80 million gallons and 156 million gallons, with a 90% probability due to feedstock yield uncertainty. After considering the co-product revenues, the expected breakeven cost for SAF is $4 per gallon, fluctuating between $2.6 and $6.5 per gallon under 90% probability. The SAF’s CI falls into the range of 31 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule of fuel (g CO2e MJ^-1) to 43 g CO2e MJ^-1, with a 90% probability. The CI range is at least 50% lower than CAF, making the winter canola-based SAF a sustainable low-carbon option.