Testing Molitor's model for tracking the information highway : an issues management study

This study tested Graham Molitor's Precursor Monitoring Model and extended work done by Lancaster and Lee, who tested online databases for growth, spread, and movement of an issue as it diffuses over timethrough various types of printed literature. Using bibliometric methodology, the Internet, representing the Information Highway as a public policy issue, was tracked retrospectively from its earliest point of origin in scientific and research literature through trade and industry literature, the general press and legislative literature. This study supports Lancaster and Lee's finding that a public policy issue appears first in scientific and research literature. It does not support Molitor's prediction that a public policy issue gains the attention of the public through general press coverage, creating a public outcry and resulting in legislative action. The High-Performance Computing Act of 1991 created the National Research and Education Network (NREN) connecting industry, government, and university databases. The study found that general press coverage of the Information Highway did not begin in earnest until 1993. A revised model is offered reflecting diffusion of the Internet through printed literature. One of the purposes of this study was to determine at what point the Internet became a "hot" issue. Earliest identification of this point has implications for issues managers and public relations professionals who track and monitor issues on behalf of their organizations. This study found that the press neglected coverage of this issue until major corporations began merging in anticipation of commercialization of the Information Highway. The study found that trade and industry press provided broadest coverage and that the issue emerged as one to be tracked in the early 1980s. In this research, an issue reached the point of being a significant issue to be tracked when coverage in trade and industry literature tripled within one year. The research also introduced and demonstrated a technique, the Intensity Index, for measuring the value of some articles over others. This study confirmed Bradford's Law of Scatter for identifying core journals, showing that a small number of high-yield trade and industry journals provided broad coverage of the Information Highway. The study supported the value of qualitative judgments in identifying issues to be tracked and introduced Precursor Pointers, qualitative tracking techniques to help an issues manager identify important players, industries, corporations, politicians, legislation, publications and advertisements in a precursor environment. Besides introducing Precursor Pointers, this study suggests applications for public relations practitioners in the areas of online issues identification and tracking, creating an issues gopher, key databases to monitor, and use of DIALINDEX, a commercial product produced by DIALOG, for efficient and economic monitoring of issue growth and spread. Through in-depth interviews with database publishers and producers, this study addresses the limitations and advantages of online databases for retrospective research.