A STAGGERED DIIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFERENCE ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF FREE COLLEGE PROGRAM ADOPTION ON SUB-BACCALAUREATE COLLEGE COMPLETIONS

Over the past two decades, free college programs, colloquially referred to as promise programs, have emerged as a solution to address increasing postsecondary education costs and increase the number of educated workers in regional workforces. Past research on promise programs has provided evidence that these programs are effective at significantly improving the student outcomes of enrollment and graduation. However, there has yet to be a study that could provide a standard, nationwide estimate for the effect of these programs. I utilize a staggered difference-in-difference (sometimes referred to as an event study or heterogenous treatment-timing difference-in-difference design) to estimate the effect of promise program adoption on the number of sub-baccalaureate awards that publicly controlled, sub-baccalaureate award granting institutions produce. I examine this outcome across two research questions that consider program length and field of study. My research question concerning program length examines all sub-baccalaureate awards, associate’s degrees, all credentials, credentials that take between 1 and 2 years to complete, and credentials that take less than one year to complete. My research question concerning program length examines awards across the fields of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM); trades; liberal arts; human services; and professional services programs.

Analysis of pre-treatment trends data found that all outcomes mentioned above were appropriate for analysis through a staggered difference-in-difference approach with the exception of awards in the field of professional services. I find evidence that promise programs do increase the number of awards produced by institutions for the outcomes that are appropriate for my analytical approach. However, this estimate varies by both length of program and I find no statistically significant changes when examining programs by academic area of study. My research has implications for and ongoing institutional, state, and federal level discussions over pending decisions to alter existing or adopt new free college promise programs. It also provides evidence that these free college programs accomplish the key goal of these programs, to increase the number of educated workers in labor markets served by institutions with promise programs.