The Next Recession: Is it Time?

The Great Recession of 2008 left millions of people without homes, and trillions of dollars in savings were wiped out. As well-informed individuals, we know the economy is cyclical in nature, but how could something so severe happen so suddenly? Were there warning signs that were missed? In my project, I attempt to answer these questions before the next recession. The average business cycle is approximately six years long, and the United States is currently in its ninth year of economic expansion. This fact alone has many people worried that a downturn may be imminent. The goal of my project is to take a holistic view of the health of the United States economy but do so in a way that is simple and easy to understand for the average person. A recession is defined as “A period of temporary economic decline generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters”. Because of this definition, I will tie every indicator I look at back into how it affects GDP in the United States. Some of the leading indicators I will focus on are the stock market, bond market, corporate earnings, consumer spending, production, and consumer sentiment.