The future of direct elections in Hong Kong after 1997

In July 1997 sovereignty over Hong Kong will be transferred from Great Britain to China. According to an agreement between these two countries. Hong Kong will become an autonomous "Special Administrative Region" with its own local government. Traditionally, Hong Kong has not had a democratic system. However, in the 1980s there has been a growing movement to institute democratic reforms which would allow the direct election of the legislature. Opposition to this movement exists both within Hong Kong and in China.

This study analyzes the prospects for direct election of the legislature in Hong Kong after 1997. The analysis involves an examination of the historic relationship between China and Great Britain regarding sovereignty over Hong Kong. This is followed by an investigation of the actors involved in determining the outcome of the issue, including the interests of each group of actors and their respective capabilities of affecting the final decision.

The result of this study is that China has the greatest capability of determining the final outcome of the issue. However, it is limited to some degree by the demands of Hong Kong residents. Therefore, in all likelihood China will concede to limited direct elections. This will allow greater representation in the legislature but not to the extent that is realized in a democratic system allowing complete direct elections.