Revealing leadership through roll call analysis : Howard Baker's effectiveness in the United States Senate 1977-1982

This research applied models of success and influence developed in presidential studies to Senate Republican Leader Howard H. Baker Jr. (R-TN) in order to determine what effect, if any, Baker had on voting patterns as minority and majority leader. The analysis, based on similar studies of presidential effectiveness, examined Baker's leadership in the first two years of his tenure as minority leader (1977- 1978) and majority leader (1981-1982). The analysis examined Baker's ability to create coalitions of voters, to turn those coalitions of votes into cohesive voting blocs, and thus to win votes on the floor of the Senate.

The statistical evidence indicates that Baker's efforts did have statistically significant effects on voting, but that these effects were not dramatic. The major findings indicated that Baker was most effective in those policy arenas for which he had noted expertise, on those issues in which his fellow party leaders supported his positions, and in good economic circumstances.

The research concluded that leadership can leave identifiable statistical indications in roll call data and that the tools used to explore presidential impact offer. similar insights into Senate leadership. The findings suggest that more study of this nature with other leaders would prove fruitful.