Estimating the Effects of Small-Scale Broiler Poultry Farming on Increasing Rwandan Meat Protein Consumption

This research centers on the USAID TI program in Rwanda aimed at increasing Rwandan meat consumption. The first chapter of this thesis pertains to the survey utilized in the project, and mean differences over time. Mean difference comparisons in this chapter show statistically significant impacts made on meat consumption by age, average monthly income, gender, household education levels, number of school aged children living in a household, a household working in the agriculture sector, and chicken ownership. These factors are utilized in the second chapter to determine statistical differences over the project’s life thus far via Poisson regressions and difference-in-difference modeling. Poisson regressions are performed for the years 2017 and 2018 in this chapter and utilize the variables sex, chicken ownership, education level, household agricultural work, average monthly income, school aged children, and program participation. According to results, statistically significant levels of impact across both years are made by education level and average monthly income. These variables are used again in difference-in-difference modeling to determine statistical differences across the individual years and overall. Results from these analyses show a P-value of 0.025 and statistical significance at the 95% confidence level indicating that the TI Program has significantly impacted meat consumption levels throughout its life. Probit analysis of asset purchases and income indicates that the program has also had an impact on the purchasing power of Rwandans. Analysis of 155 TI Program participants indicated that increasing educational status is the prime statistically significant factor to increasing income, which in turn will increase purchases from several product groups. Hopefully, continued efforts of the program and annual evaluations will continue to provide additional evidence of the success of this program in improving access to meat for Rwandans.