The validity of seniority as a predictor of future performance

The intent of this investigation was to provide empirical evidence on a long-standing debate concerning the use of seniority in staffing decisions. Specifically, the purpose of the study was to evaluate the appropriateness of basing promotional decisions, either wholly or in part, on an employee's length of service. "Policy-capturing" regression models were utilized to simulate staffing decisions in-volving a variety of seniority provisions.

Data were collected on the job changes of 162 female sewing machine operators. seniority, and interjob similarity were examined for their ability to predict performance in the new job. Performance in the old and new jobs was measured in terms of a quarterly efficiency index. Seniority was operationalized two ways: total time with the company and time in the old job. Lastly five job evaluation factors used to describe operations in the plant were employed to assess the degree of similarity between the old and new jobs. Past (i.e., old job) performance,

The results support existing policies which prescribe promotion on the sole basis of past performance (p < 0.0001) or on the basis of job seniority (p < 0.06) , when applicants are equally qualified. Interjob similarity, which was expected to moderate the predictive influence of seniority, was instead found to be a significant predictor of future performance itself (p < 0.02) . This research indicated that the best promotional model, although not a policy discussed in the literature, would be comprised of past performance, interjob similarity, and job seniority. However, additional research is required to test the generality of these findings.