Biomass Potential in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Development: Switchgrass Production Optimization and Carinata Oilseed Enterprise Viability Analysis

The growth of bioenergy as a renewable fuel source has increased the demand for efficient biofuel stocks that are multipurposed and economically viable for producers and processors. Carinata (Brassica carinata A. Braun) is a high yielding oilseed that can be combined with other production cycles, creating a potential source for additional revenue for producers. This study analyzes the economic feasibility of growing Carinata to serve the Memphis International Airport with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The supply chain will consist of producers growing the seed and selling it to crushing facilities. The crushing facilities would create an unrefined oil and sell it directly to a biorefinery for final production of SAF and various co-products. A profit, risk, and break-even analysis for the crop enterprise will be conducted. Additionally, the cost structure of the Carinata supply chain will be assessed. Given the geographical constraints of the oilseed crop due to frost damage and a literature-determined yield impact of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather patterns in the region, a stochastic model is generated to further understand the profitability under variant weather conditions.