Changes in Tennessee Land Use

Urbanization and rural development make agricultural and forest land susceptible to conversion. In Tennessee, there has been an increase in the rate of agricultural and forestry land conversion over the past two decades. In this study, we will be conducting a geo-spatial analysis, on 86 of the 95 Tennessee counties, to identify farm, agricultural, and forest parcels that have converted to some other land classification. Additionally, we provide a statistical analysis on the Eastern Tennessee region to identify drivers that are influencing conversion. From the geo-spatial analysis, we show farm, agricultural, and forestry parcels that have converted to some other land type, the type of land parcel converted to, and the amount in acres that were converted. From the statistical analysis, we find that farm, agricultural, and forest parcels with public or private utility hook-ups and urban paved or curb road types had an increased likelihood of conversion, compared to their respective baselines. We also find that as land value increases the likelihood of conversion increases. We find that parcels located on rolling, mountainous, and high elevation topography were less likely to convert, compared to the baseline of level topography. We also find that parcels with interchange, state highway, paved, gravel, dirt, and private/none road types were less likely to convert, compared to the baseline of U.S. highway. Finally, we find that parcels with out-of-state owners were less likely to convert, compared to parcels owned by Tennessee residents. Understanding the drivers for agricultural and forestry land loss is useful for local and government officials, policy makers, and stakeholders. Smart development is a way for Tennessee to balance agricultural productivity and urban growth so that Tennessee’s economy can grow efficiently.